Fiscal position over time

The General Government Sector recorded a $13.93 billion operating surplus, the largest in Queensland's history and a $14.959 billion improvement on the $1.029 billion deficit forecast in the 2022-23 Budget. It follows the previous record $4.284 billion surplus (restated) in 2021-22.

RoSF 2022-23, Outcomes Report — Net Operating Balance, p.3-6, p.3

Revenue grew 21.1 per cent ($15.625 billion) on 2021-22, led by 'other revenue' rising $9.45 billion, predominantly royalties. The increase reflected exceptionally high global coal and oil prices and the introduction of new progressive coal royalty tiers from 1 July 2022. Adjusting for the royalty windfall, underlying revenue growth was 9.7 per cent.

RoSF 2022-23, AASB 1049 Overview — Revenue, p.4-2 to 4-3, p.4

Net debt finished at $2.615 billion versus the $19.772 billion 2022-23 Budget estimate, as stronger royalty revenue reduced borrowing requirements and the government set aside investments for future regional infrastructure. The net debt to revenue ratio was 3 per cent, down from 15 per cent in 2021-22, and net debt declined for a third consecutive year.

RoSF 2022-23, Outcomes Report — Net Debt and Fiscal principles, p.3-2 to 3-6, p.3

Expenses grew 8.6 per cent ($5.978 billion) on 2021-22, well below revenue growth. Employee and superannuation expenses rose 10.2 per cent following certified public sector wage agreements (4 per cent in years one and two) and a 2.7 per cent rise in full-time-equivalent employees, alongside the $175 Cost of Living Rebate and demand-driven service costs.

RoSF 2022-23, AASB 1049 Overview — Expenses, p.4-3 to 4-4, p.4

The State Non-financial Sector capital program delivered in 2022-23 was $17.561 billion, $559 million (3.5 per cent) higher than the 2023-24 Budget estimated actual. General Government purchases of non-financial assets were $9.899 billion, reflecting higher activity in the final quarter.

RoSF 2022-23, Outcomes Report — Fiscal principles and Capital Purchases, p.3-3, p.3-6, p.3

In late June 2023 the Australian Government made advance payments, including $758 million of disaster recovery (DRFA) funding (around 40 per cent of payments budgeted for 2023-24), $620 million of Financial Assistance Grants brought forward in full, and $398 million up-front for the Social Housing Accelerator program. Much of the FAGs were on-passed to local councils, lifting both revenue and expenses.

RoSF 2022-23, Outcomes Report — Revenue, p.3-4, p.3

The General Government Sector recorded a $1.681 billion operating surplus, a $3.863 billion improvement on the $2.182 billion deficit forecast in the 2023-24 Budget. It follows operating surpluses in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

RoSF 2023-24, Outcomes Report — Net Operating Balance, p.3-6, p.3

Coal and oil prices received by Queensland producers moderated more slowly than the budget assumed, lifting royalty revenue. Even so, royalty-driven 'other revenue' fell $5.352 billion from 2022-23 as prices normalised from their 2022-23 peak.

RoSF 2023-24, AASB 1049 Overview — Revenue, p.4-3, p.4

Net debt finished at $5.684 billion versus the $16.19 billion budget estimate — a 65 per cent improvement — due to stronger operating cash flows, lower borrowing, lower capital purchases and better-than-expected QIC investment valuations. The net debt to revenue ratio was 6 per cent.

RoSF 2023-24, Outcomes Report — Net Debt and Fiscal principles, p.3-2 to 3-6, p.3

Expenses grew 16.1 per cent ($12.207 billion) on 2022-23, driven by certified public sector wage agreements, a 5.3 per cent rise in full-time-equivalent employees, electricity bill rebates and demand-driven health and child-protection costs.

RoSF 2023-24, AASB 1049 Overview — Expenses, p.4-3 to 4-4, p.4

The State Non-financial Sector capital program delivered in 2023-24 was $21.569 billion, $649 million (2.9 per cent) below the 2024-25 Budget estimated actual, largely reflecting the timing of infrastructure projects. General Government purchases of non-financial assets were $10.507 billion.

RoSF 2023-24, Outcomes Report — Fiscal principles and Capital Purchases, p.3-3, p.3-6, p.3

In late June 2024 the Australian Government made advance payments, including 85 per cent ($555 million) of the Financial Assistance Grants due in 2024-25 and a $199 million advance for the Housing Support Program, lifting actual revenue above the estimate.

RoSF 2023-24, Outcomes Report — Revenue, p.3-4, p.3

Royalty revenue is now expected to total $11.388B in 2023-24, $4.265B higher than forecast at budget, driven by higher-than-expected global metallurgical coal and oil prices and a weaker Australian dollar. The new progressive coal royalty tiers are estimated to add around $2.8B in 2023-24, compared with $783M expected at budget.

MYFER 2023-24, Revenue — Royalties, p.20-21, p.20

A General Government net operating deficit of $138M is forecast for 2023-24, a $2.044B improvement on the $2.182B deficit forecast at budget. Modest operating surpluses are still forecast across the rest of the forward estimates as commodity prices normalise.

MYFER 2023-24, Net Operating Balance, p.18; Table 4 Reconciliation, p.18, p.18

General Government net debt is estimated at $14.676B by 30 June 2024, $1.514B lower than projected at budget, mainly from improved 2022-23 operating cash flows. The net debt to revenue ratio is 17 per cent in 2023-24, rising to a forecast 54 per cent by 2026-27 as borrowings fund the capital program.

MYFER 2023-24, Balance Sheet, p.26-27; Government Fiscal Principles, p.30, p.26

The Non-financial Public Sector capital program over the 4 years to 2026-27 rose to $96.220B. Additions since budget include replacing the bus fleet with Zero Emission Buses, accelerating the Queensland Train Manufacturing Program and delivering the Australian Government-funded Housing Acceleration Program, alongside $19B of Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan renewable energy projects.

MYFER 2023-24, Capital Program, p.27, p.27

Building on the budget's record $8.224B in concessions, the government added measures including temporarily doubling the First Home Owner Grant to $30,000 until June 2025 ($210M), freezing motor vehicle registration fee and traffic improvement fee components in 2024-25, and freezing public transport fares in 2024.

MYFER 2023-24, Box 1 / Our Economic Strategy, p.5-6; Box 3, p.23, p.6

General Government expenses are estimated at $85.926B in 2023-24, $1.665B above the budget estimate. The increase largely arises from technical adjustments such as increased depreciation following infrastructure revaluations in 2022-23, plus around $600M for measures such as disaster relief, housing and support for victims of crime.

MYFER 2023-24, Expenses, p.24, p.24

After peaking at 7.3 per cent in 2022-23, Brisbane's year-average inflation is now expected to be 4.25 per cent in 2023-24 (up from 3.75 per cent at budget), reflecting higher fuel prices and a weaker Australian dollar, before moderating to 3 per cent in 2024-25.

MYFER 2023-24, Economic Overview, p.7; Table 1, p.7, p.7

The Australian Government's Infrastructure Investment Program review is expected to significantly reduce the Commonwealth's share of funding for Queensland's future transport infrastructure in the medium term, with indications it will move from funding 80 per cent of regional transport infrastructure to a 50:50 basis with the state.

MYFER 2023-24, Capital Program, p.27; Intergovernmental Financial Relations, p.28, p.28